What Do Mutual Fund Investors Really Care About?

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced? Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of constraints on intermediaries, and the risk that these constraints tighten is priced. We demonstrate in an intermediary-based asset pricing model that violations of no-arbitrage such as covered interest rate parity (CIP) violations, along with intermediary wealth returns, Read more…

Volatility Risk Pass-Through We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country's output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports. The average consumption pass-through is 50% Read more…

Foreign Sentiment We construct a direct measure of U.S. based foreign sentiment using flow shifts between U.S. and international mutual funds. Foreign sentiment predicts return reversals in international markets, while local sentiments predict reversals in local markets. Exploring this segmentation, we find that foreign sentiment predictability is driven by overreaction Read more…

Fearing the Fed: How Wall Street Reads Main Street We document a countercyclical sensitivity of the stock market to major macroeconomic news announcements. Stock prices react more to (either good or bad) announcement surprises when the economy is below its potential trend with the expectation of easing policy. Based on Read more…

AlphaPortfolio for Investment and Economically Interpretable AI We propose reinforcement-learning-based portfolio management, an alternative that improves upon the traditional two-step portfolio-construction paradigm a la Markowitz (1952), to directly optimize investors' objectives. Specifically, we enhance cutting-edge neural networks such as Transformer with a novel cross-asset attention mechanism to effectively capture the Read more…

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