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November 2018
Gill Segal – UNC
Production Networks and Stock Returns: The Role of Vertical Creative Destruction We study the relation between firms' risk and their upstreamness in a production network. Empirically, firms' average stock returns and productivity exposures increase monotonically with their upstreamness. We quantitatively explain these novel facts using a multi-layer general equilibrium model.…
Find out more »Markus Baldauf – UBC
Contracting for Financial Execution Financial contracts often specify reference prices whose values are undetermined at the time of contracting, which makes them prone to manipulation. To study such situations, we introduce a stylized model of financial contracting between a client, who wishes to trade a large position, and her broker.…
Find out more »December 2018
Yufeng Wu – UIUC
Managerial Control Benefits and Takeover Market Efficiency How and to what extent do managerial control benefits shape the efficiency of the takeover market? We revisit this question by estimating both the dark and bright sides of managerial control benefits in an industry equilibrium model. On the dark side, managers’ private…
Find out more »Sheisha Kulkarni – UC Berkeley / UVA Economics
Removing the Fine Print: Standardization, Disclosure, and Consumer Outcomes Consumers face a choice when evaluating financial contracts: study the fine print and incur a cognitive cost or ignore it and risk costly surprises in future. We use a pair of policy changes in Chile to contrast two measures to protect…
Find out more »March 2019
Paul Tetlock – Columbia
What Drives Anomaly Returns? We decompose the returns of five well-known anomalies into cash flow and discount rate news. Common patterns emerge across all factor portfolios and their mean-variance efficient combination. The main source of anomaly return variation is news about cash flows. Anomaly cash ow and discount rate components…
Find out more »April 2019
May 2019
Federico Gavazzoni – INSEAD
International R&D Spillovers and Asset Prices We study the international propagation of long-run risk in the context of a general equilibrium model with endogenous growth. Innovation and international diffusion of technologies are the channels at the core of our mechanism. A calibrated version of the model matches several asset pricing…
Find out more »September 2019
Slava Fos – Boston College
Do Short-Term Incentives Affect Long-Term Productivity? Previous research shows that stock repurchases that are caused by earnings management lead to reductions in firm-level investment and employment. It is natural to expect firms to cut less productive investment and employment first, which could lead to a positive effect on firm-level productivity.…
Find out more »Peter Simasek – Georgia Tech
Pension Overhang and Corporate Investment We exploit an exogenous, universal increase (decrease) in discount rates (pension liability) mandated by the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) to identify the impact of pension overhang on investment. We find that firms with large unfunded pension liabilities increase investment…
Find out more »October 2019
Zahi Ben-David – OSU
What Do Mutual Fund Investors Really Care About?
Find out more »Benjamin Hébert – Stanford
Are Intermediary Constraints Priced? Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of constraints on intermediaries, and the risk that these constraints tighten is priced. We demonstrate in an intermediary-based asset pricing model that violations of no-arbitrage such as covered interest rate parity (CIP) violations, along with intermediary wealth returns,…
Find out more »November 2019
Ric Colacito – UNC
Volatility Risk Pass-Through We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country's output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports. The average consumption pass-through is 50%…
Find out more »December 2019
Azi Ben-Rephael – Rutgers
Foreign Sentiment We construct a direct measure of U.S. based foreign sentiment using flow shifts between U.S. and international mutual funds. Foreign sentiment predicts return reversals in international markets, while local sentiments predict reversals in local markets. Exploring this segmentation, we find that foreign sentiment predictability is driven by overreaction…
Find out more »February 2020
Dongho Song – JHU
Fearing the Fed: How Wall Street Reads Main Street We document a countercyclical sensitivity of the stock market to major macroeconomic news announcements. Stock prices react more to (either good or bad) announcement surprises when the economy is below its potential trend with the expectation of easing policy. Based on…
Find out more »April 2020
Lin William Cong – Cornell
AlphaPortfolio for Investment and Economically Interpretable AI We propose reinforcement-learning-based portfolio management, an alternative that improves upon the traditional two-step portfolio-construction paradigm a la Markowitz (1952), to directly optimize investors' objectives. Specifically, we enhance cutting-edge neural networks such as Transformer with a novel cross-asset attention mechanism to effectively capture the…
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